Temporal Dynamics of Vaccine Uptake: Perceptual and Social Drivers of Adoption Speed Across Innovation Diffusion...

The effectiveness of infection prevention depends on not only uptake but also the timing of adoption. Vaccination studies typically treat uptake as binary, overlooking when while investigating why individuals get vaccinated. Using the novel mRNA COVID-19 vaccines as a case study, the influences of risk perceptions and social norms on vaccination timing were examined through an Innovation Diffusion framework. An online survey was conducted in November 2021 to assess vaccination behaviors, attitudes, and peer expectations of 1710 U.S. residents (51.64% females, 31.23% minorities, with a relatively balanced distribution across age and income brackets). Participants were classified by vaccination timing and intentions as early adopters, early majority, late majority, or laggards for comparative analyses. One year after vaccine rollout, 64.3% had received at least one dose; 20.1% reported no intention to vaccinate, and this resistance persisted through May 2023 when the pandemic ended. Vaccine confidence and prior behavior (e.g., influenza vaccination) demonstrated strong gradients across adoption timing. Earlier uptake was associated with higher perceived vaccine importance, infection risk, and peer uptake, whereas age and education effects diminished over time. Perceived illness severity and disease knowledge showed inconsistent influences. Later adopters anticipated higher post-vaccination infection risk and greater peer non-vaccination, reinforcing hesitancy. Social norms (but not risk perception) mediated the relationship between confidence and timing; earlier adoption further predicted booster acceptance. These findings highlight the importance of trust, correcting efficacy misperceptions, and leveraging positive peer norms to promote timely vaccination and inform strategies for other infectious diseases.