Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue

Climate change has contributed to the global resurgence of dengue, with a spike of more than 14.4 million dengue cases. This study aimed to analyze the association between dengue frequency with climatic factors, circulating serotypes, and disease severity in northwestern Mexico.

A retrospective time-series study was conducted using dengue molecular diagnostic data reported between September 2017 and January 2025 by the Laboratorio de Apoyo a la Vigilancia e Investigación Epidemiológica del Centro de Investigación Biomédica de Occidente, Mexico. Data included dengue frequency, serotype distribution, and clinical severity across seven states in northwestern Mexico (Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Sonora). Meteorological data were obtained from the Automatic Meteorological Stations of the National Water Commission. Associations between dengue frequency and climatic variables were evaluated using linear regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS v24 and R v3.5.

In Jalisco, minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as precipitation, were significant predictors of dengue cases, explaining approximately 21.7% of the variance (adjusted R² = 0.217, p < 0.001). In Colima and Michoacán, precipitation showed no predictive value. In Guanajuato, the maximum temperature was excluded from the model (adjusted R² = 0.226). Models for Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Sonora excluded two or more climatic variables, with adjusted R² values of 0.111, 0.151, and 0.049, respectively.

Climatic conditions and epidemiological time trends explain a modest proportion of dengue cases in northwestern Mexico, with the strongest association observed in Jalisco. Additional determinants, including vector ecology, host immunity, circulating serotypes, population mobility, and public health interventions, should be considered to better understand dengue dynamics.