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Updated: Jun 1, 2026

Development of Multiplex Real-Time RT-qPCR Assays for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A/B, and MERS-CoV
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The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas.

Tamer Oraby1, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah2,3

  • 1School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, 1201 W. University Dr., Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA. tamer.oraby@utrgv.edu.

BMC Infectious Diseases
|May 30, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Texas faced a major measles outbreak in 2025. Combined school closures and vaccination campaigns effectively reduced measles cases, highlighting the importance of public health interventions for vaccine-preventable diseases.

Keywords:
CounterfactualDisease modelDisease preventionMMR vaccinationMeasles

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Modeling

Background:

  • Texas experienced a significant measles outbreak in 2025, with 762 cases reported by mid-August.
  • Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe outcomes, primarily affecting unvaccinated populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate counterfactual scenarios for measles control in Texas.
  • To analyze the effectiveness of daycare/school closures and reactive vaccination strategies.

Main Methods:

  • An age-structured multi-stage SEIR model was developed to simulate the 2025 Texas measles outbreak.
  • Bayesian inference was used to fit the model to case data, estimating the effective reproduction number and generating predictive trajectories.

Main Results:

  • The estimated effective reproduction number had a median of [Formula: see text] (95% HDI: 2.1-5.4).
  • Combined vaccination and short-term closures could reduce cases by up to 21%.
  • Both interventions showed diminishing marginal returns, with combined closures most effective in the initial weeks.

Conclusions:

  • Decreased immunity levels likely contributed to the 2025 Texas measles outbreak.
  • Extended daycare/school closures combined with swift, reactive vaccination campaigns are effective for measles outbreak containment.