A city-scale optimization framework for biomass-to-clean-energy transitions: The KAMPALA-TIMES model.

Area of Science:

• Urban planning and energy systems analysis
• Climate change mitigation strategies
• Sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background:

• Rapid urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa intensifies reliance on traditional biomass for household energy.
• This reliance poses significant challenges for climate mitigation, public health, and sustainable development goals.
• Addressing these challenges requires innovative energy transition strategies tailored to urban contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply the KAMPALA-TIMES model, a city-scale, bottom-up optimization framework.
• To evaluate long-term energy transition strategies for Kampala, Uganda, from 2022 to 2060.
• To assess four distinct energy scenarios, including business-as-usual and policy-driven carbon reduction pathways.

Main Methods:

• Integration of localized energy data with IPCC AR6 SSP-RCP pathways.
• Development of a bottom-up optimization framework for city-scale energy systems.
• Scenario analysis comparing business-as-usual, enhanced biomass, mixed renewables, and carbon reduction pathways.

Main Results:

• Energy efficiency improvements alone stabilize but do not significantly reduce emissions.
• Electrification coupled with renewable energy expansion substantially lowers urban energy system emissions.
• The policy-driven carbon reduction pathway achieves the most significant mitigation, reducing emissions to ~3.4 MtCO2e by 2060.

Conclusions:

• Coordinated fuel substitution, infrastructure investment, and policy alignment are critical for urban decarbonization.
• The policy-driven pathway nearly eliminates household cooking emissions by 2040.
• The KAMPALA-TIMES model offers a transferable framework for energy planning in data-constrained, rapidly growing cities.