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Updated: Jun 2, 2026

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AFP Model Predicts Outcomes After Liver Resection: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

Belkacem Acidi1, Chetana Lim1,2, Christian Hobeika3

  • 1Department of Hepatobiliary and Liver Transplant Surgery, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Assistance Publique- Hôpitaux de Paris, Sorbonne University, Paris, France.

Annals of Surgical Oncology
|June 1, 2026
PubMed
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This summary is machine-generated.

The AFP score effectively predicts hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver resection, offering improved risk stratification for patients. This model aids in guiding postoperative surveillance and treatment strategies for better patient outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Hepatobiliary Surgery
  • Surgical Oncology
  • Transplant Hepatology

Background:

  • The AFP model, integrating tumor factors and serum AFP, excels in predicting HCC recurrence post-liver transplant.
  • Its prognostic performance after liver resection for HCC requires further definition.
  • This study evaluates the AFP model's utility in predicting outcomes after curative hepatectomy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the prognostic value of the AFP score for predicting recurrence and survival after liver resection for HCC.
  • To validate the AFP model's performance in a contemporary French multicenter cohort undergoing curative hepatectomy.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 424 adult patients undergoing curative HCC resection across five French centers (2012-2021).
  • Patients were stratified by AFP score (≤ 2 vs. > 2).
Keywords:
Biological risk stratificationCirrhosisHepatocellular carcinomaPostoperative recurrencePrognostic modelingSurgical oncology

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  • Survival outcomes (OS, RFS) analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression.

    • Main Results:

    • The AFP score was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in univariable analysis.
    • The AFP score independently predicted recurrence in multivariable analysis (HR 1.18, p=0.004).
    • Patients with an AFP score > 2 exhibited significantly lower 24-month RFS (p=0.0005).

    Conclusions:

    • The AFP model demonstrates significant prognostic value for predicting HCC recurrence after liver resection.
    • The AFP score can enhance preoperative risk stratification for patients undergoing hepatectomy.
    • Integrating the AFP model may optimize postoperative surveillance and treatment strategies.