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Comparing potential biodiversity conflicts from renewable energy expansion in China at different centralization
Zhijie Zhou1,2, Siyu Sun1, Junjie Zhang1,3
1Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, China.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
|June 2, 2026
Summary
Centralized renewable energy planning in China reduces species overlap but increases conflict with functional diversity. Integrated, multilevel frameworks are essential for balancing climate and biodiversity goals.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
- Energy Policy
Background:
- Rapid renewable energy expansion presents significant trade-offs with biodiversity conservation.
- Uneven distribution of renewable energy potential and biodiversity creates a critical governance challenge.
- Determining the optimal administrative level for spatial planning is key to mitigating conflicts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model China's solar and wind energy expansion through 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality.
- To compare a centralized national planning scenario with the current provincial (decentralized) planning approach.
- To evaluate the impacts of different governance levels on biodiversity conservation.
Main Methods:
- Modeling the spatial expansion of solar and wind energy in China.
- Comparing national versus provincial planning scenarios.
- Assessing conflicts with richness-based conservation, functional diversity, and biome types.
Main Results:
- National siting resulted in 4-7% less spatial conflict with richness-based conservation and 11-33% fewer species overlaps compared to provincial planning.
- National planning showed greater conflict with functional diversity and open/dry biomes, including endangered species like the marbled polecat.
- Provincial planning disproportionately overlapped with the habitats of small-ranged forest species.
Conclusions:
- No single governance level is sufficient for addressing climate and biodiversity trade-offs.
- Integrated, multilevel siting frameworks are imperative for effective planning.
- Synthesizing strengths across administrative scales is crucial for meeting dual climate and biodiversity targets.
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