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Related Experiment Videos

Tracking progress towards sustainable development goal 3.2 in Somalia using time series models: a comparative

Khadar Mowlid Abdi1,2, Abdirisak Mohamed Moumin3, Hibo Abdilahi Omer4

  • 1Research and Innovation Center, Amoud University, Borama, 25263, Somalia. khadar.mowlid@amoud.edu.so.

Conflict and Health
|June 4, 2026
PubMed
Summary

The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model accurately forecasts Somalia's infant mortality rate (IMR). Projections show a continued decline in IMR, offering crucial data for public health strategies.

Keywords:
ANNARIMAForecastingHybridInfant mortality rate

Related Experiment Videos

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • High infant mortality rate (IMR) is a critical public health indicator.
  • Somalia faces elevated IMR, necessitating accurate forecasting for effective policymaking.
  • Understanding IMR trends is vital for public health strategy development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model and forecast Somalia's infant mortality rate (IMR).
  • To identify the most accurate time series forecasting method for IMR.
  • To provide data-driven insights for public health interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Quantitative time-series analysis using World Bank data (1950-2022).
  • Development and comparison of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and hybrid ARIMA-ANN models.
  • Performance evaluation using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE).

Main Results:

  • The ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model demonstrated superior accuracy (RMSE 0.85) compared to ANN (RMSE 1.04) and hybrid models (RMSE 3.01).
  • Achieved stationarity through first-order differencing was crucial for ARIMA model effectiveness.
  • Forecasts project a gradual decline in IMR from 59.02 in 2023 to 40.37 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2032.

Conclusions:

  • The ARIMA model provides the most reliable framework for forecasting Somalia's infant mortality rate.
  • Historical data analysis supports the ARIMA model's predictive power.
  • Findings offer valuable insights for targeted public health interventions in Somalia.