Optimizing urban avian conservation through multi-scenario network simulation in high-density cities: Integrating...

Urban expansion threatens avian biodiversity in high-density cities globally, requiring strategies to enhance habitat connectivity through small-scale interventions. However, conventional ecological network planning often prioritizes biophysical metrics, overlooking the social values and public preferences that shape the long-term acceptance and success of conservation measures. To address this gap, this study integrates public bird preference data with ecological network modeling. Beijing, a megacity characterized by intense urbanization and active biodiversity governance, was selected as a representative case to test this socio-ecological approach. Citizen science observations (2015-2025) of 15 resident-favored bird species were combined with 35 environmental factors to assess habitat suitability for six functional avian groups using Maximum Entropy modeling (AUC: 0.756-0.897). Circuit theory analysis delineated an ecological network of 127 core sources, 260 stepping stones, and 1009 corridors, demonstrating substantial spatial overlap with the existing protected zones of the Beijing Garden City Nature Belts. Multi-scenario simulations showed that compared to random or patch-size-prioritized removal, conserving high-centrality stepping stones delayed connectivity decline and fragmentation by over 60% and preserved 68.6% of post-collapse connectivity. Building on these findings, we propose a three-tiered protection strategy for popular species, ranging from strict protection to adaptive management. In conclusion, by fundamentally shifting public preference from a peripheral to a central input in network analysis, this study establishes a novel, socially informed conservation framework. This integration enables precise identification of critical stepping stones and yields an actionable, prioritized conservation blueprint, thereby enhancing the practical relevance and implementability of ecological network designs for advancing bird-friendly cities worldwide.