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Published on: April 14, 2011

Risk factors analysis of poor prognosis in ICU-admitted children with severe influenza pneumonia: a retrospective

Zhaoqian Shan1, Wanyu Jia1, Wanying Li1

  • 1Henan Province Engineering Research Center of Diagnosis and Treatment of Pediatric Infection and Critical Care, Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Henan Children's Hospital Zhengzhou Children's Hospital, No. 1 University South Road, Erqi District, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450018, China.

Italian Journal of Pediatrics
|June 9, 2026
PubMed

Insights

High fever, invasive mechanical ventilation, and elevated IL-6 levels predict poor outcomes in children with severe influenza pneumonia. Early identification of these risk factors aids timely intervention.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric critical care medicine
  • Infectious diseases
  • Respiratory medicine

Background:

  • Severe influenza pneumonia poses a significant risk to children admitted to the ICU.
  • Early identification of prognostic risk factors is crucial for timely clinical intervention and improved outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate independent prognostic risk factors for adverse outcomes in pediatric ICU patients with severe influenza pneumonia.
  • To guide early risk stratification and timely clinical intervention for severe influenza pneumonia in children.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 139 pediatric ICU patients diagnosed with severe influenza pneumonia.
  • Univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent risk factors for poor prognosis.
  • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to evaluate the predictive effectiveness of identified risk factors.

Main Results:

  • Fever peak >41°C (OR 13.584), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (OR 47.526), and elevated interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels (OR 1.049) were identified as independent risk factors for poor prognosis.
  • The optimal cut-off for IL-6 was 492.05 pg/mL (AUC 0.755).
  • Combined assessment of fever peak >41°C, IMV, and IL-6 levels demonstrated strong predictive performance (AUC 0.848).

Conclusions:

  • Fever peak >41°C, requirement for IMV, and IL-6 levels >492.05 pg/mL are robust early predictors of poor prognosis in severe pediatric influenza pneumonia.
  • Combined assessment of these markers offers strong predictive value for identifying high-risk patients.
  • These findings support targeted early intervention strategies for children with severe influenza pneumonia.
Abstract

Keywords:
ChildrenInfluenzaPneumoniaPrognosisRisk factors

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