Quantifying the effects of ultraviolet radiation on cutaneous melanoma, 1990-2021, and projecting to 2032

The global burden of cutaneous melanoma (CM) remains substantial, yet its temporal trends and relationships with ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and socioeconomic context remain incompletely understood.

Global Burden of Disease Study data from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, mixed-effects models, and time-lagged random forest models to assess CM burden and its associations with MODIS-derived UVR and gross domestic product (GDP). A UVR-enhanced ARIMA-X model projected burden to 2032.

CM burden showed marked spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Age-standardized incidence was highest in Australasia (47.71 per 100,000) and lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Male mortality exceeded female mortality by 26%, with the largest increases among adults aged ≥70 years. UVR was positively associated with CM incidence (β  =  0.001, P = 0.038). Time-lagged analysis showed a biphasic UVR pattern, with predictive contribution peaking at 18.2% at an 11-year lag. GDP per capita showed an inverse association with CM incidence (β = -0.200, P = 0.040), but this finding should be interpreted as a contextual population-level association. By 2032, mortality and incidence are projected to decline by 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively, whereas prevalence and DALYs are projected to rise.

Global CM burden remains heterogeneous and is positively associated with ambient UVR, with the strongest predictive contribution at an 11-year lag. Socioeconomic associations should be interpreted cautiously. UVR-oriented prevention, early detection, and context-specific strategies remain essential.