Development and Internal Validation of a Side-Specific Nomogram Integrating mpMRI and Biopsy Features to Guide...

Background: Preoperative side-specific identification of extracapsular extension (ECE) is important for selecting an appropriate nerve-sparing strategy at radical prostatectomy. Patients with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI)-defined capsular contact represent a clinically challenging subgroup because contact raises concern for ECE but does not uniformly indicate extraprostatic disease. We aimed to develop a side-specific nomogram for individualized ECE prediction and perform preliminary internal validation in this selected population. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 323 prostate lobes from 286 patients with biopsy-proven, non-metastatic prostate cancer and mpMRI-defined capsular contact who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy between 2015 and 2021 at a single institution. The dataset was randomly split into training (70%) and testing (30%) cohorts. Three multivariable logistic-regression models were developed and compared. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration by intercept and slope, and clinical utility by decision curve analysis. A nomogram was derived from the best-performing model in the internal split-sample comparison. Results: Side-specific ECE was present in 110/323 lobes (34.1%). Among the candidate models, the forward-selection model showed the most favorable apparent performance, with an AUC-ROC of 0.85 in training and 0.83 in testing, together with good test-set calibration (intercept 0.24; slope 0.97). The final model included a capsular contact length ≥10 mm, percentage tumor involvement in positive biopsy cores, number of positive biopsy cores, and index lesion size. At a 10% predicted risk threshold, 32% of lobes were classified as low risk, with an observed ECE rate of about 5%. Conclusions: We developed a side-specific nomogram tailored to patients with mpMRI-defined capsular contact and performed preliminary internal validation. The model may aid preoperative side-specific risk assessment relevant to nerve-sparing planning, but external validation and assessment of clinical impact are required before clinical adoption.