Climate Change Reduces Habitat Suitability of the Endemic Iranian Ground-Jay (Podoces pleskei): Spatial Analyses to...

Dryland and semiarid ecosystems in Iran are increasingly threatened by climate change and human activities, posing significant risks to endemic avian species such as the Iranian Ground-jay (Podoces pleskei). In this study, we used ecological niche models and GIS analyses to predict the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of this bird. Our models showed that the habitat suitability for P. pleskei was primarily concentrated within the deserts and xeric shrublands biomes and identified extensive suitable habitat patches along the Iran-Pakistan border. Podoces pleskei showed a higher probability of presence at low values of mean temperature of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, NDVI, and distance from human settlements. Our findings reveal that although approximately 36% of suitable habitats fall within formally designated protected areas, the majority remain unprotected and suffer from severe fragmentation, compromising long-term conservation prospects. We found that P. pleskei lost a considerable proportion of its suitable habitats due to climate change i.e., 18% and 52% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Our models showed strong predictive performance as indicated by high Area Under Curve and True Skill Statistic values. Moving beyond traditional protected area designation, conservation efforts must prioritize habitat connectivity and community engagement to ensure the persistence of P. pleskei and other dryland avian species, particularly in light of the significant habitat loss caused by climate change. Our findings contribute valuable insights into avian ecology in Iran's fragile ecosystems and inform evidence-based conservation planning in the country.