Predictive modeling and spatiotemporal analysis of gender-based violence in Rajasthan, India
Poonam K Saravag1, B Rushi Kumar1, Jitendra Kumar1
1Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India.
Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology
|June 12, 2026
Summary
Crimes against women in Rajasthan, India, showed distinct spatial patterns before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Socioeconomic factors like poverty and unemployment significantly influenced crime hotspot formation.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Public Health
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Crimes against women, including dowry deaths and domestic cruelty, are a significant social problem in India.
- The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns may have influenced the incidence and spatial distribution of these crimes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial autocorrelation of crimes against women in Rajasthan, India.
- To identify high-intensity crime hotspots and their evolution before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdown.
- To determine factors influencing the formation of these crime hotspots.
Main Methods:
- Utilized National Crime Records Bureau data from 2018 to 2022.
- Employed spatial scan statistics to detect crime hotspots.
- Applied Moran's I Index for spatial autocorrelation and Logistic regression to identify influencing factors.
Main Results:
- Ajmer emerged as a significant hotspot during the lockdown; Bhilwara, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bundi, Kota, and Ajmer remained hotspots throughout the study period.
- Spatial analysis indicated 2020 did not have the highest likelihood ratio for hotspot formation.
- Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed pre- and post-lockdown, with reduced intensity during the lockdown.
Conclusions:
- Crime against women in Rajasthan is influenced by socioeconomic factors such as poverty, income, unemployment, substance abuse, early pregnancy, and female disability.
- Findings underscore the complex interplay of social and economic determinants in shaping crime patterns.
- Insights can inform targeted policy interventions and resource allocation to mitigate crimes against women.
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