Predicting the future from fear: An RI-CLPM analysis of risk appraisals and long-term psychological well-being

Risk perceptions involving estimates of whether negative events would occur are theorized to be linked to psychological well-being, although there is inconsistent evidence on whether well-being leads to reduced risk perceptions or if risk perceptions lead to reduced well-being. We clarify this using a longitudinal, random-intercepts cross-lagged panel modeling (RI-CLPM) approach. Specifically, we examined the inter-relationship between risk perceptions and psychological well-being across four waves of data (2014-2020) from the Understanding America Study (UAS; N = 7,289). Neuroticism, age, gender, education, income, and race were adjusted for. Results indicated that between-person differences in risk perception covaried with lower psychological well-being (r = -0.49, p < .001). Importantly, within-person increases in risk perception were associated with lower psychological well-being at the subsequent wave (βs = -0.07 to -.06, ps < .007), whereas psychological well-being was not linked to future risk perceptions. These findings support a unidirectional association of risk appraisals with lower subsequent psychological well-being.