Asymmetric recovery of Euro-Mediterranean croplands driven by co-occurring climate forcings

Euro-Mediterranean croplands are increasingly exposed to co-occurrent climate extremes that threaten productivity. Using satellite-derived Gross Primary Production (2000-2024) across nine major regions, we assessed the resilience of seasonal crop productivity under drought and heat stress. Recovery after winter deficits was rare (3/15 cases, 20%), whereas summer deficits were followed by recovery in the subsequent winter (16/23, 70%). Non-recovery after summer deficits (7/23) consistently coincided with severe prolonged droughts (median affected area ≈80.6%) and positive surface temperature anomalies (median +1.76 °C). By contrast, non-recovery after winter deficits (12/15) was linked either to hot-dry conditions or, less frequently, to cold anomalies with little drought; recovery occurred only when climatic anomalies were weak or absent. These results show that winter conditions set the baseline for annual productivity and constrain summer resilience. Building on this asymmetry, we propose a framework integrating drought-heat indices into early-warning systems and adaptation planning for Euro-Mediterranean agriculture.