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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
12:44

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Published on: July 24, 2016

Ecological conservation priority requires foresight: coupling multiple scenarios and network perspective.

Jing Zhong1, Kaiwen Li2, Peng Zhang2

  • 1School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, 430079, China.

Journal of Environmental Management
|June 13, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future urban development impacts ecological network connectivity. Rapid urban development fragments habitats, while ecological conservation development better maintains network stability for sustainable landscape management.

Keywords:
Ecological conservation priorityEcological networksLand use simulationMinskUrban expansion

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Area of Science:

  • Ecological network analysis
  • Urban planning
  • Landscape management

Background:

  • Sustainable landscape management requires understanding future land-use dynamics' impact on urban ecological networks.
  • Assessing ecological network connectivity under different development scenarios is crucial for conservation planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze changes in urban ecological network connectivity in Minsk, Belarus, by 2035 under three land-use scenarios.
  • To evaluate the effects of business as usual (BAU), ecological conservation development (ECD), and rapid urban development (RUD) on ecological corridors and network stability.

Main Methods:

  • Coupling land-use simulation with ecological network analysis.
  • Scenario-based assessment of ecological source fragmentation, corridor number, and mean corridor length.
  • Integration of landscape pattern changes with corridor pinch and barrier points.

Main Results:

  • Rapid urban development (RUD) encroaches on forest habitats and increases fragmentation.
  • Ecological conservation development (ECD) better maintains ecological source suitability and network stability.
  • Corridor numbers and mean lengths increase across scenarios, but may indicate fragmentation rather than improved connectivity.

Conclusions:

  • Alternative development pathways significantly reshape ecological network components and conservation priorities.
  • Scenario-based, spatially explicit data are vital for adaptive ecological network planning.
  • ECD scenario offers a more sustainable approach to balancing urban expansion and ecological integrity.