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Optimizing multidimensional land use for flood regulation supply-demand matching: Evidence from a GWRF-SHAP model
Weihao Shi1, Jian Tian2, Jiahao Zhang1
1School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
Journal of Environmental Management
|June 14, 2026
Summary
Urban land use significantly impacts flood regulation ecosystem services (FRES) supply and demand. This study reveals critical nonlinear thresholds and spatial variations, enabling targeted land use management for flood resilience.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
- Ecosystem Services
Background:
- Urban flood risk is a growing concern, exacerbated by land use changes impacting flood regulation ecosystem services (FRES).
- Existing research often lacks mechanistic understanding of land use impacts on the FRES supply-demand balance, hindering effective management.
- A comprehensive framework is needed to integrate multidimensional land use characteristics for detailed analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate an integrated framework for analyzing the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous mechanisms of land use impacts on FRES supply-demand.
- To translate mechanistic insights into actionable zoning strategies for urban flood risk management.
- To advance FRES research from descriptive approaches to mechanism-based management.
Main Methods:
- Developed a framework integrating "function-form-pattern-intensity" land use characteristics with the interpretable spatial machine learning GWRF-SHAP model.
- Applied K-means clustering to translate identified mechanisms into practical zoning strategies.
- Validated the framework in Tianjin, a flood-prone metropolis.
Main Results:
- Identified significant mismatches between FRES supply and demand, with 23.12% of units showing low supply and high demand.
- Land use intensity and pattern were found to be more influential than form or function.
- Uncovered critical nonlinear thresholds for land use intensity (LUI) and built-up area cores (B_core), with spatially varying driving mechanisms.
Conclusions:
- There is a pronounced mismatch in FRES supply and demand in urban areas, necessitating targeted interventions.
- Land use management strategies must be threshold-aware and spatially explicit to effectively mitigate urban flood risks.
- The proposed framework offers a replicable approach for optimizing land use towards flood-resilient and sustainable urban development.
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