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Updated: Jun 16, 2026

Protocol for Dengue Infections in Mosquitoes (A. aegypti) and Infection Phenotype Determination
Published on: July 4, 2007
A socio-hydro-epidemiological model for simulating trade-off between dengue infections, water shortages, and adaptive
Maurizio Mazzoleni1, Francesco Defilippo2, Carlo Torti3,4
1Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Abstract:
Dengue and drought severity are rising worldwide, with drought responses shaping mosquito breeding conditions in cities. Current modeling approaches do not couple household water-use behavior, climate extremes, and vector-borne disease transmission. Here, we developed a system dynamics model that links dengue transmission, human-water interactions, multiple adaptation strategies, and social behavior in a synthetic city. We compared three adaptation pathways: dengue-focused, drought-focused, and co-adaptation guided by social awareness. Results show that adaptation choices strongly affect awareness, water shortages, mosquito abundance, and human infections. Drought-focused adaptation reduces average water shortages, but prolonged standing water in rainwater tanks increases mosquito growth and dengue transmission. Co-adaptation retains drought buffering while limiting favorable habitat for vector growth. Changes in drought-awareness decay can influence dengue outbreaks more strongly than changes in dengue-awareness decay. These results highlight the value of coordinated drought and dengue management for reducing health risks while maintaining water security under climate change.
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