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Published on: September 2, 2016
Drivers of technology diffusion speed in countries
Jenna H Greene1, Matthew J Gidden2,3, Elina Brutschin3,4
1Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA. jhgreene@wisc.edu.
Technological transitions for climate change mitigation diffuse faster when technologies are newer, simpler, and smaller. This suggests smaller-scale innovations may be adopted more quickly than large, complex systems, requiring tailored support for widespread adoption.
Area of Science:
- Sustainability Science
- Technology Adoption Studies
- Climate Change Mitigation
Background:
- Rapid technological transitions are crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global temperature rise.
- Historical technology adoption trends offer insights into the potential speed of these transitions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the effects of technology and country characteristics on the speed of technology diffusion.
- To provide a broader and more integrated assessment of diffusion drivers using an expanded dataset.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an expanded Historical Adoption of Technologies (HATCH) dataset.
- Analyzed 5990 national-level time series across 130 technologies and 228 countries.
- Examined technology and country characteristics influencing diffusion speed.
Main Results:
- Observed substantial variation in technology diffusion growth rates.
- Newer, simpler, more standardized, smaller, less materially intensive, and shorter-lived technologies diffuse more rapidly.
- Diffusion speed is influenced by a combination of technology attributes and country-specific factors.
Conclusions:
- Smaller-scale technologies tend to be adopted faster than complex, large-scale technologies.
- Widespread adoption of large-scale technologies may require greater support and longer timeframes.
- Understanding diffusion drivers is key to accelerating necessary technological transitions for climate goals.
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