Climate-driven dust intensification over the Mongolian Gobi in early spring

While dust activation has declined across most of East Asia over recent decades, springtime dust storms have intensified over the Mongolian Gobi, suggesting a regionally distinct response to climate change. This study focuses on March, the early stage of the dust season, when snow cover and land-atmosphere interactions are particularly sensitive to climatic conditions. Using 24 years (2000-2023) of multi-platform observations and ERA5 reanalysis, we show that increasing surface susceptibility driven by snow loss and soil drying coincides in early spring with persistent baroclinic instability and sustained upper-level thermal winds over this region. These atmospheric conditions, which are absent over neighboring dust source areas, prevent the dynamical weakening typically associated with mid-latitude warming. In contrast, over the Loess Plateau, reduced thermal winds act as a compensating response that suppresses dust mobilization despite surface drying. As a result, the Mongolian Gobi experiences an unmitigated climate penalty, where both land-surface drying and persistent atmospheric circulation jointly amplify dust emissions under ongoing warming. Our findings reveal how regional climate dynamics can fundamentally reshape dust-source activation in early spring across East Asia under a warming climate.