[Supply-demand Matching of Ecosystem Services and Its Driving Factors in the Tianshan North Slope Urban...

Under the combined pressures of global climate change and human activity， ecological conservation in arid and semi-arid regions faces mounting challenges. Understanding the patterns and driving forces behind the supply and demand of ecosystem services is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Therefore， the InVEST model， spatial autocorrelation， and correlation analysis were employed to evaluate the supply-demand matching characteristics and correlations of water yield， habitat quality， grain production， carbon storage， and soil conservation services in the Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020. In combination with the optimal parameters-based geographical detector， the influencing factors of the supply-demand ratio were identified. The results show that： ① The supply and demand of habitat quality services have continuously declined， while the other four services experienced an initial increase followed by a decline. The supply-demand ratio for carbon storage services showed a significant surplus， whereas the other four services exhibited varying degrees of imbalance. ② The supply-demand matching of habitat quality services was mainly characterized by high supply and low demand， while that of the other four services was primarily characterized by low supply and low demand. ③ The supply of ecosystem services was mainly characterized by a synergistic relationship， with only habitat quality and grain production services showing a trade-off relationship. The demand for ecosystem services was mainly characterized by a trade-off relationship， with significant synergy between grain production and water yield services， carbon storage and water yield services， and carbon storage and grain production services， with a correlation coefficient of 1. ④ The supply-demand ratio of water yield service was influenced by the interaction between population density and GDP. The supply-demand ratio of habitat quality service was influenced by the interaction between land use/cover change and DEM. The supply-demand ratios of both grain production and carbon storage service were influenced by the interaction between population density and land use/cover change. The supply-demand ratio of soil conservation service was influenced by the interaction between land use/cover change and slope. The research results can serve as a scientific basis for the management and protection of the ecological environment in the Tianshan North Slope Urban Agglomeration.