Comprehensive Resilience Assessment of Global Staple Food Trade Networks Based on Structural Evolution and Cascading...

Amid intensifying extreme climate events, geopolitical conflicts, and sudden trade policy disruptions, the resilience and vulnerability of global staple food trade systems have emerged as pressing governance concerns. This study constructs directed weighted trade networks for wheat, maize, and rice from 2015 to 2024 and evaluates their vulnerability and resilience evolution using a three-dimensional structural resilience framework and underload cascading failure models. The results reveal that all three networks display scale-free and disassortative properties. The wheat network gradually recovered following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, whereas structural imbalance continues to deepen in the maize network, and the rice network faces persistent resilience pressure arising from excessive dependence on core exporters. Cascading failure simulations indicate that targeted attacks on key exporting countries can trigger large-scale network collapse. Introducing cross-crop substitution effects markedly enhances the resilience of individual food trade networks through cross-layer substitution and supplementation; yet under simultaneous attacks, crop substitution effects instead serve as a conduit for cross-layer cascading failure propagation, and even a minimal willingness to substitute can weaken network resilience. Accordingly, this study proposes policy recommendations to strengthen the resilience of the global staple food trade network.