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Assessing How Fact-Checks Influence Accuracy and Consensus Judgments: Evidence From the Olympics
Morgan Wack1, Jinan Allan2, Brandon Boatwright3
1Department of Communication and Media Research (IKMZ), University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Summary
Fact-checks do not cause the backfire effect, but may create a small illusory consensus. However, fact-checks effectively improve accuracy for true claims, showing their overall benefit in combating misinformation.
Area of Science:
- Social Psychology
- Communication Studies
- Information Science
Background:
- Fact-checking interventions are widely used to combat online misinformation.
- Concerns exist regarding potential negative outcomes like the
- backfire effect
- and
- illusory consensus
- (misperceptions of societal beliefs).
Purpose of the Study:
- To experimentally test whether repeated fact-checking interventions can lead to the backfire effect or illusory consensus.
- To assess the impact of fact-checks on personal accuracy judgments and consensus estimates regarding true and false claims.
Main Methods:
- A two-wave experimental study with quota-balanced samples from the US, France, and South Africa (N=680).
- Participants evaluated true and false posts related to the 2024 Paris Olympics.
- Outcome measures included personal accuracy judgments and consensus estimates, reassessed after the event.
Main Results:
- No evidence of the backfire effect was found (d=0.048).
- A small illusory consensus effect was observed (d=0.125), where fact-checked debunked claims were perceived as more widely believed.
- Fact-checks significantly improved accuracy for true statements (d=0.71-0.91), with durable effects.
Conclusions:
- Fact-checking is more effective at reinforcing correct beliefs than causing negative outcomes.
- The specific nature of misinformation narratives may influence the persistence of corrections and consensus distortions.
- Further research should explore group dynamics in misinformation perception and fact-checking effectiveness.
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