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Jumping to Conclusions in First-Episode Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder.
Ezgi Cesim1, Muhammed Demir1, Merve Sümeyye Eyüboğlu1
1Department of Neurosciences, Health Sciences Institute, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey.
Early Intervention in Psychiatry
|June 28, 2026
Summary
Individuals with first-episode bipolar disorder (FEBD) and first-episode psychosis (FEP) show jumping to conclusions bias. This decision-making tendency suggests early cognitive vulnerabilities in these conditions.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Psychiatry
- Neuroscience
Background:
- Jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias is a cognitive tendency to make decisions with insufficient evidence, often seen in psychosis.
- Understanding JTC bias is crucial for identifying early cognitive markers in psychiatric disorders.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate JTC bias in individuals experiencing first-episode bipolar disorder (FEBD) and first-episode psychosis (FEP).
- To compare JTC bias levels between FEBD, FEP, and healthy controls (HCs).
Main Methods:
- The Bead Task was employed to assess JTC bias.
- Participants drew beads from a source and made decisions about the origin.
Main Results:
- Both FEBD and FEP groups demonstrated significantly longer response times and a higher tendency for hasty decision-making compared to HCs.
- No significant correlations were observed between JTC bias and clinical measures in the patient groups.
Conclusions:
- JTC bias is present in early stages of both FEP and FEBD, indicating potential decision-making vulnerabilities.
- Further research is needed to explore if interventions targeting reasoning biases can improve decision-making in these populations.
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