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Published on: September 27, 2014
A Metagenomic Biosurveillance Network for Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Simulation-Based Model
Isabel Meusel1, David Manheim1, Oscar Delaney1
1Isabel Meusel, MD, was a Research Fellow, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and is now a PhD Researcher, Department of Primary and Long-Term Care, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. David Manheim, PhD, is Director of Policy and Research, Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER), Rehovot, Israel; and a Visiting Lecturer, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel. Oscar Delaney is a Research Manager, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Daniel Greene, PhD, was a Senior Analyst at Gryphon Scientific, Takoma Park, MD; and is now a Technical Staff member at Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund, New York, NY. Rona Tobolsky is a Researcher, ALTER, Rehovot, Israel; and a Graduate Student, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel. Hanna Palya was a Research Fellow, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and is now a PhD Researcher, Institute for Global Pandemic Planning, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom. Naham Shapiro, MPH, is a Public Health Lead, ALTER, Rehovot, Israel; and a Research Assistant, School of Public Health, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel. Siddhanth Sharma, MD, MPH, was a Public Health Registrar, Metropolitan Communicable Disease Control Perth, Perth, Australia; and is now a Public Health Specialist, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Early detection of novel respiratory pathogens in Israel is possible with a metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) system. This surveillance approach, utilizing an SEIR model, could identify outbreaks within 68 days, aiding containment efforts.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Genomic Surveillance
- Public Health Preparedness
Background:
- Emerging infectious diseases pose significant global health threats.
- Rapid detection and response are crucial for containing novel pathogen outbreaks.
- Existing surveillance systems may not be optimized for early identification of novel respiratory pathogens.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and model a metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) surveillance system for Israel.
- To estimate the cost and detection time for novel respiratory pathogens using mNGS.
- To provide an open-source tool for exploring surveillance system configurations.
Main Methods:
- Development of an open-source, interactive SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered)-based model.
- Modeling based on 7 representative respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential.
- Simulation of a national mNGS monitoring network in Israeli hospitals.
Main Results:
- A novel pathogen with SARS-CoV-2-like characteristics could be detected within 68 days (IQR: 53-80) of initial presentations.
- Detection occurs after approximately 213 total infections (IQR: 94-429) across Israel.
- Annual cost estimated at US$24 million over 10 years for implementation in 6 major hospitals, covering 37% of the population.
Conclusions:
- An mNGS surveillance system offers a viable strategy for early detection of novel respiratory pathogens in Israel.
- The proposed system balances cost, detection speed, and population coverage.
- The interactive model empowers policymakers to assess different surveillance scenarios.
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