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Predicting 18-month M-CHAT-R/F With PediaTracTMv3.0 Motor and Social/Communication/Cognition Domains

Ryan M Krebs1, Angela D Staples1, Jin Bo1

  • 1Psychology Department, Eastern Michigan University, Ypsilanti, MI, USA.

Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders
|June 29, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Early developmental trajectories in motor and social/communication/cognition skills, reported by caregivers, can predict autism spectrum disorder (ASD) likelihood. Neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage also strongly predicts later ASD likelihood.

Area of Science:

  • Developmental Pediatrics
  • Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
  • Early Childhood Development

Background:

  • Early identification of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is crucial for timely intervention.
  • Caregiver reports offer valuable insights into infant development.
  • Understanding predictors of ASD at 18 months is essential for improving diagnostic accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if caregiver-reported motor (MOT) and social/communication/cognition (SCG) abilities in infancy predict ASD likelihood at 18 months.
  • To compare the predictive power of cross-sectional infant abilities versus longitudinal developmental trajectories.
  • To assess the role of socioeconomic factors in predicting ASD likelihood.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal study of 415 caregiver-infant dyads from birth to 18 months.
  • Analysis of cross-sectional MOT and SCG abilities at 9 and 12 months, and longitudinal trajectory parameters from birth to 12 months.
  • Hierarchical multiple regression models predicting M-CHAT-R/F scores at 18 months, controlling for covariates.

Main Results:

  • Longitudinal developmental trajectories explained more variance in M-CHAT-R/F scores than cross-sectional measures.
  • Steeper developmental declines in MOT and SCG abilities predicted higher ASD likelihood.
  • Higher neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage was the strongest predictor of ASD likelihood.

Conclusions:

  • Caregiver-reported developmental trajectories are valid indicators for identifying early patterns linked to later ASD likelihood.
  • Integrating developmental trajectories with socioeconomic factors can enhance early ASD detection.
  • This approach can inform the development of targeted interventions for children at risk for ASD.
Abstract

Keywords:
Autism riskDevelopmentInfantPediaTracScreeningSurveillance

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