Monitoring novel psychoactive substance trends on social media: Analysis of discussions and dashboard implementation

Novel psychoactive substances (NPSs), due to rapid emergence and evolving use patterns, pose a significant public health surveillance challenge. Traditional surveillance lags street-level reality, necessitating the exploration of novel strategies and data sources like Reddit for continuous NPS trend monitoring and presenting a public dashboard.

We mined data from 60,601 subreddits between January 2015 and June 2025 for seven NPSs (kratom, xylazine, medetomidine, nitazenes, tianeptine, bromazolam, and 2C-B) using keyword-variants. We performed Mann-Kendall trend tests to assess temporal patterns, computed correlations to compare post volumes with National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) drug report counts (2015-2024), conducted cross-correlation analyses at ±2-year lags to identify lead-lag relationships, and created a public dashboard for data visualization.

The dataset comprised 328,223 posts from 139,901 accounts. We observed moderate to strong correlations between Reddit volumes and three out of five NPSs with NFLIS reports: bromazolam (ρ = 0.81, p < 0.001), tianeptine (ρ = 0.48, p = 0.04), xylazine (ρ = 0.60, p < 0.001). Cross-correlation analyses indicated Reddit discussions preceded NFLIS reports for medetomidine (ρ = 0.93, lag = -2 years), bromazolam (ρ = 0.86, lag = -1year), tianeptine (ρ = 0.81, lag = -2years), and xylazine (ρ = 0.62, lag = -2years), suggesting Reddit discussions as a potential leading indicator. Co-mention of other substances with NPSs often matched known trends from retrospective data.

Reddit-based surveillance provides timely and complementary signals to traditional forensic systems for NPS monitoring. Interactive visualizations and downloadable aggregated statistics are available via our dashboard.