Artificial intelligence-based algorithm for predicting outcomes in early-stage lung cancer: An annotation-free
Keiju Aokage1, Jumpei Ukita2, Mamoru Miura2
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, National Cancer Center Hospital East, Chiba, Japan.
JTCVS Open
|July 1, 2026
Summary
An artificial intelligence (AI) model using computed tomography (CT) scans and clinical data accurately predicts prognosis for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. This AI tool enhances risk stratification and supports personalized treatment planning.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Radiology
- Artificial Intelligence
Background:
- Surgery is the standard treatment for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
- Conventional prognostic factors for NSCLC are subjective and variable.
- Objective prediction methods are needed for stage I NSCLC prognosis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate an annotation-free artificial intelligence (AI) model for prognosis prediction in stage I NSCLC.
- To integrate computed tomography (CT) imaging and clinical data for enhanced predictive accuracy.
- To improve risk stratification and support personalized treatment planning.
Main Methods:
- Developed an AI algorithm to predict pathological classifications from CT and clinical data.
- Refined and validated the model using multi-institutional prospective trial data and a validation cohort.
- Trained models to predict 5-year disease-free and overall survival, evaluating performance using AUC.
Main Results:
- Models integrating CT imaging and clinical data outperformed those using single data types.
- The AI model achieved an AUC of 0.787 for pathology prediction.
- Combined AI, clinical, and CT assessment data yielded the highest AUC for 5-year survival prediction (0.757 for DFS, 0.756 for OS).
Conclusions:
- Annotation-free AI models integrating CT and clinical data offer accurate, objective prognosis prediction for stage I NSCLC.
- These AI models complement conventional diagnostics.
- AI-driven predictions support personalized multidisciplinary treatment planning for NSCLC.
