Predicting 1-Year Renal Outcomes in Patients with Diabetic Kidney Disease in CKD Stages 3 to 4: A Multimodal Machine...

Patients with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) at chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3 to 4 are at high risk for rapid renal function decline within 1 year. However, owing to the multifactorial complexity of the disease, effective prognostic tools that integrate multidimensional clinical and pathological information are currently lacking for this specific population. We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving 322 patients with biopsy-proven DKD (CKD stages 3 to 4) from the China-Japan Friendship Hospital and Hebei University Affiliated Hospital. Their clinical data and 2,576 renal biopsy pathology images were used to develop and validate a multimodal model. Machine learning was applied to integrate clinical composite indices and renal biopsy images to develop a prognostic prediction tool. Four key clinical predictors were identified: estimated glomerular filtration rate, 24-h urinary protein, systemic immune inflammation index, and estimated pulse wave velocity. Among the 6 machine learning algorithms used to develop the prediction models, the random forest algorithm achieved the best performance in the test set, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.889 and a precision-recall AUC (PR-AUC) of 0.921 for predicting the 1-year composite renal endpoint. The integration of pathological features led to a marked improvement in the performance of the model (ROC-AUC: 0.923 vs. 0.898). External validation demonstrated that incorporating pathological information into the model increased the ROC-AUC from 0.885-achieved when clinical composite indices alone were used as predictors-to 0.930. In this study, machine learning-based automated image analysis of glomerular crescent-shaped changes and renal interstitial fibrosis was integrated with established clinical composite indices to construct an accurate model for predicting short-term renal prognosis of DKD at CKD stages 3 to 4 and to provide a potential tool for improved risk stratification.