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Confident judgments of (mis)information veracity are more, rather than less, accurate
Akshina Banerjee1, Matthew D Rocklage2, Mohsen Mosleh3
1Department of Marketing, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Abstract:
Does confidence help or hinder the recognition of misinformation? Prior work has reached opposing conclusions, in part because it has not separated confidence in a specific judgment from confidence in one's abilities in general. Here, we separate these constructs and test them side-by-side. In a large, preregistered study on Lucid (n = 503) where participants judged the accuracy of news headlines, confidence in specific judgments predicted greater accuracy. In contrast, general confidence predicted greater "inaccuracy." In a preregistered prolific replication (n = 498), the confidence-in-judgment effect replicated, whereas the confidence-in-general effect was less consistent. Together, these results indicate that when people say they are confident in a specific judgment, they tend to be right-but people who are generally confident in themselves are no better at spotting misinformation and may even be worse.
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