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Risk Ranking of Emerging Hazards in Fresh Produce and Cereal Grains under Climate Change using Multi-Criteria
Leonardos Stathas1, Constantine-Richard Stefanou1, Christina Kamarinou1
1Laboratory of Food Microbiology and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece.
Journal of Food Protection
|July 1, 2026
Summary
Climate change poses risks to food safety. This study prioritized hazards like Aspergillus mycotoxins in grains and pathogens on leafy greens, guiding future food safety research.
Area of Science:
- Food Safety and Toxicology
- Climate Change Impact Assessment
- Microbiology and Risk Analysis
Background:
- Climate change is projected to significantly alter the prevalence and potency of microbial and chemical contaminants in food systems.
- Proactive hazard assessment is crucial for efficient resource allocation in food safety research and management.
- Emerging food safety concerns necessitate structured risk ranking methodologies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a structured risk ranking of emerging microbial and chemical hazards in fresh produce and cereal grains within the European Union, considering climate change.
- To develop and apply a framework integrating historical data, expert opinion, and predictive microbiology for hazard prioritization.
- To inform future research directions and enhance the safety of fresh produce and cereal grains under changing environmental conditions.
Main Methods:
- A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework was employed, integrating top-down (historical outbreak data) and bottom-up (Expert Knowledge Elicitation and predictive microbiology) evidence streams.
- Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) involved surveying international specialists to rank hazard-commodity combinations vulnerable to climate change.
- Predictive microbiology principles were used to qualitatively link environmental factors to microbial growth and toxin production parameters.
Main Results:
- Aspergillus mycotoxins in cereal grains were identified as the highest-priority hazard.
- Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella spp. on leafy vegetables were ranked as significant emerging hazards.
- Other priority hazards included Fusarium and Penicillium mycotoxins in cereal grains and Bacillus cereus in fresh produce.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a prioritized list of microbial and chemical food safety hazards associated with fresh produce and cereal grains under climate change scenarios.
- The applied risk ranking framework enhances conventional MCDA by incorporating qualitative risk assessment and structuring criteria along a causal pathway.
- The findings offer valuable insights for directing future research and policy development to mitigate climate change-related food safety risks.
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