Risk-Attributable Burden of Breast Cancer from High Red Meat Intake

Breast cancer remains a major global health challenge, and increasing evidence suggests that high red meat intake may contribute to its burden. However, the magnitude and long-term trends of red meat-attributable breast cancer across major economies remain unclear. This study quantified the breast cancer burden attributable to high red meat intake from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2040 across G20 countries using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. Using GBD 2021 estimates, we assessed red meat-attributable breast cancer burden based on the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) framework. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were applied to identify cohort patterns and generate projections through 2040. We found a substantial global increase in age-standardized incidence (ASIR), rising from 3.9 to 6.7 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021. The United States, China, and Japan together contributed nearly 45% of G20-attributable Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Trends varied markedly by development level: high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries showed declining or stable burdens, whereas low- and middle-SDI countries experienced pronounced increases. Younger cohorts (particularly ages 30-49) exhibited the highest APC-derived risks, indicating a shift toward earlier-onset burden. BAPC projections suggest that red meat-attributable DALYs will continue to rise and may increase by approximately 30%-50% by 2040 if no further interventions are implemented. High red meat intake is a significant and growing contributor to breast cancer burden, with particularly rapid increases in low- and middle-SDI settings and among younger cohorts. Strengthening dietary risk reduction strategies and targeted prevention efforts in G20 countries is essential to mitigate the projected rise in burden over the coming decades.