Deep learning model to predict COPD hospital admissions based on meteorological data: a medical meteorological
Lei Zhang1, Mingjie Zhang2, Jinghong Zhang2
1Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Hainan Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Hainan General Hospital, Haikou, Hainan, China.
Background:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has placed a substantial health burden on the world. Meteorological conditions are associated with hospital admissions for COPD. In this study, we aim to develop a model of medical meteorological forecasting for COPD hospital admissions.
Methods:
A predictive model was developed using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm applied to time series data on COPD hospital admissions and meteorological conditions. Data were collected daily from 25 September 2016 to 26 December 2020. Performance of the model was assessed using the mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R 2. The association between the risk of COPD hospital admissions and meteorological conditions was assessed using a conditional logistic regression analysis and a conditional Poisson regression analysis in a time-stratified case-crossover design.
Results:
A total of 17,555 hospital admissions for COPD from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019 were included in the final LSTM model. Regarding the performance of the LSTM model, the MSE was 0.028, the RMSE was 0.167, the MAE was 0.134, and R 2 was 0.416. Regression analysis revealed that the maximum temperature was positively associated with COPD hospital admissions.
Conclusion:
The LSTM model offers potential for medical meteorological forecasting to predict COPD hospital admissions among the general population according to the local climate. Higher maximum temperature may be a risk factor for COPD hospital admissions.
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