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Related Experiment Videos

Genomic Offsets Predict Survival With Low Accuracy in a Marine Common Garden.

Camille A Rumberger1, Madeline G Eppley1, Kiran Bajaj1

  • 1Marine Science Center, Northeastern University, Nahant, Massachusetts, USA.

Molecular Ecology
|July 4, 2026
PubMed
Summary

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Genomic offset methods show limited accuracy in predicting oyster population fitness across diverse environmental conditions. Further validation is needed for reliable climate change adaptation predictions in marine species.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Conservation biology
  • Marine ecology

Background:

  • Predicting population responses to climate change is crucial for conservation.
  • Genomic offset methods aim to predict maladaptation to environmental change.
  • The predictive accuracy of genomic offset methods across diverse systems requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the performance of genomic offset methods in predicting the fitness of the marine mollusc, Crassostrea virginica.
  • To assess how environmental gradients (salinity, disease) influence oyster fitness.
  • To validate genomic offset predictions against empirical fitness data from a common garden experiment.

Main Methods:

  • Paired genomic offset predictions with a large-scale common garden experiment.
Keywords:
Crassostrea virginicaadaptationclimate changegenetic–environment interactionsgenomic offsetpredictive ecological genomics

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  • Investigated fitness (survival, growth) of Crassostrea virginica across environmental gradients.
  • Compared empirical fitness data with genomic offset predictions, including disease as a factor.

    • Main Results:

    • Northern oysters exhibited lower survival and growth compared to Southern oysters and local lines at common garden sites.
    • Genomic offset methods performed better at a lower salinity, moderate disease site than at a higher salinity, higher disease site.
    • Disease inclusion in offset models affected performance variably; offset predictions showed similar magnitudes despite significant survival differences.

    Conclusions:

    • Genomic offset methods, as applied, were not adequate for real-world predictions of environmental stressor impacts on oyster populations.
    • Extrapolating genomic offset predictions across species ranges presents significant challenges.
    • Empirical validation is essential to refine genomic offset methods for effective conservation strategies under climate change.