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Serial effects in choice and confidence modulate each other: Evidence from 26 experiments.

Michaela Bocheva1, Kai Xue2, Dobromir Rahnev2

  • 1Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.

Cognition
|July 9, 2026
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Summary

Serial dependence in perception and memory influences choices and confidence. This study reveals that choice and confidence serial effects are interconnected, challenging previous assumptions of independence.

Keywords:
Confidence leakMemoryMetacognitionPerceptual decision makingSerial dependence

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Neuroscience
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Serial dependence describes how past decisions bias current perception and memory.
  • Confidence leak refers to a similar serial effect observed in confidence ratings.
  • These effects were previously thought to be independent and driven by separate mechanisms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between choice serial effects and confidence leak.
  • To determine if these serial effects interact and modulate each other.
  • To explore potential common mechanisms underlying both phenomena.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of data from 26 diverse experiments (N=1876) encompassing perception and memory tasks.
  • Systematic examination of choice serial effects and confidence leak across experimental conditions.
  • Trial-by-trial manipulation of stimulus categories to assess modulation of confidence leak.

Main Results:

  • Choice and confidence serial effects were robustly present in both perception and memory tasks.
  • A significant interaction was found between choice serial effects and confidence leak across all experiments.
  • Switching choices weakened confidence leak, while switching confidence reversed choice serial effects.

Conclusions:

  • Choice and confidence serial effects are strongly associated and mutually modulate each other.
  • The findings suggest that distinct serial effects may arise from common underlying neural or cognitive mechanisms.
  • This challenges the traditional view of independent processes driving serial dependence in choice and confidence.