Assessing grid affordability for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Grid expansion remains a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue under current tariffs to support capital investment is unclear. We compile a comprehensive dataset of residential electricity tariffs for 48 SSA countries and develop a standardized model to estimate electricity bills using the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). Affordability is assessed across income percentiles using simulated income distributions. Under current tariffs, around 608 million people (50%) may not afford Tier 4 electricity, rising to 1.05 billion (85%) for Tier 5 under a 10% energy-poverty threshold. Sensitivity analyses using 5% and 15% thresholds confirm the robustness of these findings. Even where higher-tier electricity is affordable, usage remains low. Combining affordability estimates with utility financial performance, we identify where grid expansion could be viable and where affordability constraints and utility deficits can create electrification traps. In many countries, off-grid solutions may be the only feasible pathway to achieving SDG7.