Progress in wheat farm yield improvement has largely stagnated across the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Yield stagnation, which has occurred in some global wheat production hubs, is a serious barrier to meeting future food demands. Yield trends across the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where 8.2 million Mg of wheat was produced in 2025, are mostly unknown. Using publicly-available data (USDA farm surveys and university-led variety trials), the objective of this research was to evaluate winter wheat yield trends across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho since the early 1970s. Survey analysis showed that historic rates of yield increase among agricultural districts ranged from 18 to 195 kg ha^-1 year^-1, with incremental shifts toward irrigation in select districts driving the highest rates. But yields began to stagnate between the early 1980s and mid-1990s. Analysis of top-yielding varieties in 163 variety trials conducted since 2000 showed that genetic gain by year of variety release has slowed to 4-5 kg ha^-1 year^-1 across lower- and higher-yielding environments. Variety trial yield trends by test year suggest that environmental and/or agronomic factors may be negatively offsetting genetic gains, especially in higher-yielding environments. These findings have broad implications for regional farmers and multidisciplinary researchers who support them. Gaining more rigorous understanding of the factors contributing to yield stagnation is critical to reversing the trend.