Incidence and Predictors of New-Onset Heart Failure After Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With

Masahiro Hisaoka1, Yasuhiro Yoshiga1, Hironori Ishiguchi1

  • 1Department of Medicine and Clinical Science, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine Yamaguchi Japan.

Circulation Reports
|July 10, 2026
PubMed

Insights

New-onset heart failure (HF) is uncommon after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation in patients with preserved ejection fraction. However, durable rhythm control after AF ablation may reduce HF risk.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Electrophysiology
  • Heart Failure Research

Background:

  • The risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) following catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well understood, especially in patients with preserved ejection fraction (EF ≥50%) and no prior history of HF.
  • Understanding these predictors is crucial for patient selection and risk stratification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the incidence and predictors of new-onset HF after AF ablation in patients with preserved EF and no prior HF.
  • To evaluate the association between early and late recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias (ATs) and subsequent HF development.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 480 patients with EF ≥50% and no prior HF undergoing initial AF ablation.
  • Landmark analyses at 3 and 12 months to identify HF predictors.
  • Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model to assess the impact of AT recurrence after final ablation on HF development.

Main Results:

  • New-onset HF occurred in 3.75% of patients during a median follow-up of 70 months.
  • Age >75 years was the only consistent independent predictor of new-onset HF in landmark analyses.
  • Recurrence of ATs after the final ablation was independently associated with a 4-fold increased risk of new-onset HF (HR 4.028; P=0.004).

Conclusions:

  • New-onset HF after AF ablation is infrequent in patients with preserved EF and no prior HF but carries clinical significance.
  • Achieving durable rhythm control post-ablation appears critical for mitigating the risk of HF development.
Abstract

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