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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 12, 2026

Measuring Frailty in HIV-infected Individuals. Identification of Frail Patients is the First Step to Amelioration and Reversal of Frailty
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Published on: July 24, 2013

Forecasting multimorbidity in aging people with HIV using a microsimulation model.

Viviane D Lima1,2, Jielin Zhu1, Tian Shen1

  • 1British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC Canada.

Communications Health
|July 10, 2026
PubMed
Summary

By 2034, nearly half of people living with HIV (PLWH) will be over 60, with over a quarter experiencing multiple chronic conditions. This highlights the need for integrated care models for aging PLWH.

Keywords:
DiseasesHealth careMedical research

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Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Effective antiretroviral therapy has increased life expectancy for people living with HIV (PLWH).
  • Aging-related non-communicable diseases and multimorbidity are significant challenges for PLWH.
  • Understanding evolving health needs is crucial for healthcare planning for PLWH.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the health trajectories of PLWH in British Columbia from 2019 to 2034 using a novel microsimulation model.
  • To forecast the prevalence of key chronic conditions and multimorbidity in an aging PLWH population.
  • To identify sex-based differences in health outcomes among PLWH.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a new microsimulation model integrating longitudinal clinical and administrative data.
  • Inclusion of high-prevalence conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-AIDS-related cancers, chronic liver disease (CLD), hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and mood and anxiety disorders (MANX).
  • Stratification of projected results by age and sex.

Main Results:

  • By 2034, nearly 50% of PLWH will be aged 60+, with over 25% having at least three chronic conditions.
  • Projected increase in CVD (8.4% to 14.8%) and non-AIDS-related cancers (8.9% to 17.2%).
  • Mood and anxiety disorders (MANX) will remain the most common comorbidity, affecting about half of PLWH, with notable sex differences in multimorbidity patterns.

Conclusions:

  • Urgent preparation is needed for the projected rise in multimorbidity among aging PLWH.
  • Forecasting tools are valuable for guiding integrated care models for this population.
  • Addressing sex-specific health needs is essential for comprehensive care planning.