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Updated: Jul 13, 2026

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Published on: June 30, 2020

Climate Change Projected to Increase Rates of Background Tree Mortality Across Eastern North America.

Jiejie Wang^1,2,3, Anthony R Taylor¹, Mathieu Bouchard²

¹Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada.

Global Change Biology

|July 11, 2026

Summary

Warmer temperatures increase background tree mortality across North America. This study predicts rising mortality rates for several key tree species, impacting forest health and carbon dynamics.

Keywords:

background tree mortality climate change eastern North America forest dynamics machine learning permanent sample plots

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Area of Science:

Forest Ecology
Climate Change Science
Machine Learning Applications in Ecology

Background:

Tree mortality is crucial for forest health, carbon cycling, and biodiversity.
The impact of climate change on background tree mortality, independent of major disturbances, is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate and predict the effects of climate on background tree mortality for nine abundant tree species in eastern North America.
To develop species-specific climate-mortality models accounting for stand development, CO2, and SO4 pollution.

Main Methods:

Utilized a machine learning approach on a large dataset of 24,576 forest permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States.
Developed species-specific models controlling for stand development, CO2, and SO4.
Analyzed data spanning a wide range of temperature and precipitation conditions.

Main Results:

Temperature was a top predictor of tree mortality rates, with warmer temperatures correlating to higher background mortality for most species.
Predicted increases in tree mortality rates are expected along the southern ranges of species due to future warming.
Mortality rates are projected to rise by 0.2%-0.7% per year for five of nine species by mid-century under SSP2-4.5.

Conclusions:

Climate-driven background tree mortality is a significant factor influencing future forest dynamics.
Understanding these climate-driven variations is essential for forest management and conservation strategies.
The study highlights the vulnerability of eastern North American forests to projected climate change.