Future Chronic and Acute Air Pollution Deaths in China under Climate Change and Emission Reduction

Air pollution poses significant threats to human health through both chronic and acute exposures. Future climate warming and population aging may lead to increased health risks from air pollution, while emission reductions can help alleviate the associated risks. Yet, the joint impacts of future climate change and emission reductions on both chronic and acute air pollution exposure and related premature deaths remain unclear. Here, we utilize dynamical downscaling and multi-model ensemble simulations to systematically assess projected chronic and acute exposure of O3 and PM2.5 and the associated premature deaths in China in 2056-2060 under two climate scenarios. We find that future climate change under the high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) is projected to lead to a moderate increase of 4%-19% in chronic PM2.5 and O3 pollution exposure and premature deaths but a substantial increase of 19%-89% in acute exposure and deaths in China by midcentury. Deep emission reductions from China's carbon neutrality efforts will effectively mitigate pollution health risks, especially for acute pollution exposure, while health risks for chronic exposure remain a concern under an aging population. Our results reveal future changes in air pollution health risks, suggesting an urgent need for targeted air quality and health management policies.