Estimating carbon prices for revenue parity between timber and carbon in forest plantations

Carbon pricing policies are increasingly central to forest sector climate strategy, yet the carbon price levels at which conservation becomes economically competitive with timber production vary depending on the framing. We examine Taiwan's Cunninghamia lanceolata (fir) plantations through two complementary net present value analyses. The estate-level revenue equivalence analysis compares aggregate carbon and timber revenues across the plantation estate over 2005-2024, while the stand-level break-even analysis identifies the carbon price at which a newly established plantation would be financially competitive with full timber harvest at age 37 using a levelized-cost framework. The estate-level analysis yields a threshold of NT$958/tCO₂e (USD $32). The stand-level analysis yields a range of NT$3,704-8,056/tCO₂e (USD $123-269) depending on timber price and subsidy assumptions, with foregone timber revenue accounting for 39-48% of total costs across scenarios. The higher stand-level threshold assumes that the entire stand would be harvested at rotation age. In practice, harvest volumes across Taiwan's fir estate have declined substantially, meaning the real opportunity cost facing many landowners is lower than our analysis assumes. Our analysis provides policy-relevant insights into the carbon pricing levels needed to make conservation economically competitive with timber harvesting in Taiwan's plantation forest context.