Population aging and changes in mortality from four major noncommunicable diseases in Suzhou, China: a...

Population aging is accelerating worldwide and poses long-term health challenges for four major chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory disease (CRD), and diabetes.

To analyze trends in mortality of these four NCDs in Suzhou, and examine the impact of population aging on mortality rates.

Data on the household-registered population of Suzhou and deaths from major NCDs from 2000 to 2020 were collected. The age structure of the population, crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate by the Segi's world standard population (ASMRW), years of life lost (YLL), and premature mortality of the four NCDs were calculated. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends. A difference decomposition method was employed to estimate the contributions of population aging and non-demographic factors to changes in mortality rates.

From 2000 to 2020, the degree of population aging in Suzhou continued to increase. The CMR for cancer, CVD, and diabetes showed an upward trend, the CMR for CRD declined significantly. The ASMRW and mortality burden for cancer, CVD, and CRD showed a downward trend, however, the mortality burden of diabetes continued to rise. Population aging is a key factor driving the increase in deaths from cancer and CVD, while the decline in deaths from CRD is more influenced by non-demographic factors; the rise in diabetes mortality is driven by the combined effects of population aging and non-demographic factors.

Population aging in Suzhou intensified significantly, contributing substantially to mortality from major NCDs. Targeted strategies for healthy aging and chronic disease prevention are urgently needed.