Evolving cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco purchasing patterns ahead of smokefree generation legislation in Great...

The United Kingdom's smokefree generation policy aims to end smoking by prohibiting tobacco sales to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. Its success may depend on how tobacco is currently accessed, especially through illicit channels. This study examined cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco purchasing trends and patterns by age, socioeconomic position, vaping status, and nation.

Data came from a representative monthly cross-sectional survey in Great Britain, October 2020 to April 2025. We analyzed responses from 9966 participants (≥16y) who reported current cigarette smoking and where they had purchased cigarettes/hand-rolling tobacco in the past 6 months. Logistic regression models estimated (i) time trends and (ii) independent associations with age, socioeconomic position, vaping status, and nation, adjusted for smoking frequency and survey wave.

Domestic in-person retail purchasing remained the dominant source but declined over time (from 94.0% to 86.7%). Online purchasing remained rare (2.8%) while cross-border and illicit purchasing increased (reaching 32.8% and 23.1% in 2025), with illicit purchasing more than doubling between mid-2023 and 2025. Cross-border purchasing was more common among adults aged 18-64 years and those who were more advantaged (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] = 0.35 [0.28-0.45] for least vs. most advantaged). Illicit purchasing was more common among those who were younger (eg, aOR = 5.38 [2.81-10.29] for 16-17y vs. ≥65y), less advantaged (eg, aOR = 1.48 [1.17-1.87] for least vs. most), and who also vaped (aOR = 1.26 [1.09-1.47]).

While most people aged ≥16 who smoke in Great Britain continue to purchase tobacco through domestic in-person retail outlets, a substantial and growing minority-particularly those who are younger, less advantaged, and those who both smoke and vape-buy from illicit sources.

The growing prevalence of illicit tobacco purchasing suggests the need for sustained investment in enforcement ahead of the implementation of the proposed smokefree generation policy. Without such efforts, reductions in legal access may be undermined by increased reliance on illegal supply routes. However, it is important to note that our figures reflect the proportion purchasing from each source among people who smoke and reported their source of purchase, not total market consumption. The increase in prevalence of illicit tobacco purchasing may represent shifts in purchasing patterns rather than a definitive increase in the overall size of the illicit market.