A framework for constructing water ecological security patterns based on water provision service flow simulation

Area of Science:

• Ecological security
• Water resource management
• Spatial network analysis

Background:

• Existing Water Ecological Security Patterns (WESP) lack spatial connectivity and process integrity due to static supply-demand assessments.
• Current methods fail to capture the dynamic spatial flow pathways of water resources between supply and demand areas.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a network model-based simulation approach for water provision service flows.
• To identify key spatial elements for WESP construction with dynamic connectivity in the Yellow River Delta (YRD).
• To provide a flow-based perspective for resolving supply-demand imbalances and enhancing regional water security.

Main Methods:

• Quantified water provision service supply and demand.
• Integrated the Least Cost Path (LCP) model with an Iterative Dynamic Allocation algorithm for dynamic flow simulation.
• Considered landscape resistance and human demand in simulating water provision service flows.

Main Results:

• Identified a persistent water deficit and a growing spatial mismatch in the YRD, with declining supply in the north and surging demand in the south.
• Simulated a "periphery-to-center" flow network connecting 62 key pathways from coastal supply nodes to inland demand centers.
• Proposed a WESP framework of "five zones, two corridors, three belts, and three cores" with four differentiated management zones.

Conclusions:

• The proposed flow-based simulation approach enhances WESP construction by incorporating dynamic connectivity.
• Differentiated spatial regulation strategies are developed for the identified management zones to address regional water security challenges.
• This study offers a novel perspective for improving water resource management and mitigating scarcity through dynamic flow analysis.