[Low-carbon Development Pathways of the Petrochemical Industry in the Hangzhou Bay Area Based on the LEAP Model]

Focusing on the Hangzhou Bay petrochemical cluster， a LEAP-Hangzhou Bay petrochemical industry model was developed to identify future low-carbon development pathways for the region's petrochemical sector. Combined with factors such as industrial development and technological progress， the model analyzed trends in terminal energy demand and carbon emission levels under baseline， energy-saving and carbon-reduction， and enhanced carbon-reduction scenarios from 2021 to 2060. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario， energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the Hangzhou Bay petrochemical cluster were projected to peak in 2035 at 84.83 million tonnes （Mt） and 129.35 Mt， respectively. Under the enhanced carbon-reduction scenario， implementing comprehensive measures could achieve an earlier peak in energy consumption by 2030， while reducing CO₂ emissions in 2060 by 58.5% compared to the baseline. Among these measures， industrial restructuring demonstrated significant carbon reduction potential， enabling cumulative emission reductions of 147 Mt CO₂ between 2021 and 2060， contributing 44% of the total reduction. From the perspective of the economic analysis of carbon reduction technologies， electric boilers as substitutes， intelligent efficiency improvement， coal gasification poly-generation power generation， and waste heat utilization technologies represented by power generation from yellow phosphorus tail gas and waste heat recovery from hydrogen chloride all have relatively high cost-effectiveness （cost-effectiveness ratio < 50 yuan·t^-1，CO₂）. In contrast， technologies like hydrogen production via hydrolysis， new type of highly efficient and low energy consumption CO₂ capture technology， multi-energy complementary microgrids， and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors， despite their substantial emission reduction potential， face relatively high unit abatement costs， presenting challenges for large-scale deployment. These findings can inform policy research on low-carbon transition pathways for key industries in the Hangzhou Bay Region and the broader Yangtze River Delta.