[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of the Coupling Coordination Between Ecological Protection and...

Based on the strategic background and developmental planning of the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone， this study systematically investigates the coupling and coordination mechanisms between ecological protection and economic development. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system for ecological protection and economic development， an empirical analysis of their coupling coordination relationship within the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone was conducted. Utilizing the coupling coordination degree model， spatial autocorrelation analysis， the geographical detectors， and GM（1，1） grey prediction method， this research thoroughly examines the spatiotemporal characteristics， coupling coordination degree， driving mechanisms， and future development trends of ecological protection and economic development in the study area from 2010 to 2022. The findings reveal that： ① Over the study period， the coupling coordination degree （CCD） in the Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone exhibited a general upward trend， transitioning from a near-disordered recession state to a marginally coordinated development level. However， significant spatial heterogeneity was evident， with central counties consistently displaying lower CCD values compared to those in peripheral regions. Spatial autocorrelation analysis confirmed the presence of positive spatial dependence， revealing persistent low-value clusters concentrated in the central area. ② Driver analysis identified population density and carbon emissions as the dominant influencing factors， each exerting statistically significant individual effects and demonstrating the highest interactive explanatory power within the geographical detector model. ③ Projections suggest that by 2035， the regional CCD will continue its upward trajectory， reaching a well-coordinated development stage. Notably， Jingzhou City is expected to experience the most pronounced improvement， positioning itself at the top among all prefecture-level cities in terms of CCD. Based on these insights， this study proposes targeted strategies to enhance the coupling and coordination between ecological protection and economic development， thereby providing scientific decision-making support for achieving high-standard ecological protection and high-quality economic development in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone.