Decoding urbanization pathways: An integrative land use change indicator framework for sustainable development in...

Area of Science:

• Urban Planning and Geography
• Environmental Science
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Nusantara's rapid urban expansion transcends administrative limits, creating a need for better understanding of cross-boundary land-use dynamics.
• Existing land-use change (LUC) models often overlook the complexities of new capital agglomerations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a contextualized predictive-preventive framework for assessing land use change in the Nusantara agglomeration.
• To identify indicators that capture both internal urban growth drivers and regional socio-ecological constraints.

Main Methods:

• A review-based conceptual synthesis of recent LUC studies and empirical evidence.
• Integration of the Nusantara Development Masterplan into the framework's design.
• Identification and categorization of predictive and preventive LUC indicators.

Main Results:

• A framework with 46 predictive indicators for internal urban growth conditions (suitability, pressure).
• A framework with six preventive indicators for regional ecological capacity and spatial inequality.
• The framework links internal urban drivers with external socio-ecological constraints for cross-boundary LUC assessment.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework provides a novel approach to understanding and managing urbanization beyond administrative boundaries.
• It offers a conceptual foundation for future scenario modeling, comparative research, and sustainable land management in new city developments.
• This approach is crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and equitable development of Nusantara.