Identifying partnered service members at risk for negative relationship outcomes

The period following basic training is a challenging one for young service members. They are away from family, training intensely for their future career fields, and may be navigating long distance relationships with intimate partners for the first time. Relationship problems are common and can significantly undermine adjustment and training. This study assessed an array of possible risk markers among partnered service members (SMs) as they arrived at technical training in the Department of the Air Force, along with a variety of relationship outcomes, and followed them (and some of their partners) for the subsequent 24 months. We then used Binary Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis to identify the optimal subset of predictor items and cut points to screen prospectively for negative relationship outcomes (i.e. significant relationship distress, relationship dissolution, occurrence of infidelity or intimate partner violence) at any follow-up assessment. We identified a 14-item screener that differentiated low risk (i.e. 32-42% chance of negative outcome) from moderate risk (68-70% chance of negative outcome) and high risk (88% chance of negative outcome) SMs, as well as differentiating low-to-moderate risk from high-risk SMs. This scoring flexibility allows the screening threshold to be matched to diverse programmatic goals, balancing the cost of potential prevention efforts against the level of risk. Early identification of at risk SMs will enable targeted prevention efforts.