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Validation of a web-based clinical tool for predicting the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm
Alaa Abuzaid1, Shadi Noaman Garrada2, Hebah Salem Abdullah Alsaihati2
1Pediatrics and Neonatology, Maternity and Children Hospital, Dammam, Saudi Arabia alaaabouzeid2811@gmail.com.
Background:
This study aimed to critically evaluate the web-based National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) outcome estimator (2022) regarding its models on postnatal days 1, 3, 7, 14 and 28 in predicting grade 2 and grade 3 BPD as well as the combined outcome of death or grade 2 to grade 3 BPD at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA) or discharge if earlier.
Methods:
This single-centred retrospective cohort study included neonates with birth weights of 501-1250 g and born between 23+0 and 28+6 weeks of gestational age. We used the C-statistic receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) to predict the predetermined outcomes of grade 2 and grade 3 BPD as well as the composite outcome of death or progression from grade 2 to grade 3 BPD at 36 weeks PMA or discharge, whichever came first.
Results:
The AUC values were 0.71 on postnatal day 7 and 0.76 on postnatal day 14, indicating that the prediction accuracy for the composite outcome of death or grade 2-3 BPD at 36 weeks PMA on days 7 and 14 has limited clinical utility.
Conclusion:
The NICHD web-based Neonatal BPD Outcome Estimator (2022) has moderate accuracy as evidenced by the AUCs of 0.76 on postnatal day 14 in predicting the outcome of grade 2-3 BPD and the composite outcome of death or grade 2-3 BPD at 36 weeks PMA or discharge if earlier.
